Soaring USD!

The April FOMC minutes  just came out and it has sent USD soaring, breaking from its fetters of pessimism. Please refer to the full minutes here.

In short, more fed members are supportive of a rate hike in June, citing the global risks have faded since the march meeting. The probability of a hike just went from 15% in the morning to 33% now according to the Fed Watch tool. USD has appreciated considerably against most currencies.

EUR/USD

USD/AUD

USD/SGD

But as of now, USD/JPY has hit 110 a few times and has been hovering around that region to break out. It could very well happen during the Asian market. But it also bound to have huge retracements.

But nevertheless, their decision has to be also supported by the future economic data and global conditions!

Money Changer Rates ( Arcade, Raffles Place)

Currency	Units	Buy	Sell
American Dollars	1	1.369	1.375
Canadian Dollars	1	1.057	1.073
Euro	1	1.547	1.56
British Pounds	1	1.98	1.995
Swiss Francs	1	1.393	1.407
Australian dollars	1	0.998	1.007
New Zealnad Dollar	1	0.928	0.942
Japanese Yen	Y1000/$1	12.53	12.60/79.36
Malaysian Ringgit	RM100/$1	33.8/2.945	2.93
Thai Bhat	1	3.83/26.11	25.72
Taiwan Dollars	100/1	4.23/23.64	23.33
Hongkong Dollars	100/1	17.6/5.68	5.64
Chinese RMB	100/1	20.7/4.831	4.77
South Korean Won	1000/ 1	1.17/854	843
Indonesia Rupiah	100000/1	10.23/9775	9600
Phillipines Peso	100/1	2.9/34.48	33.4
Indian Rupees	100/1	2/50	48.7
South African Rand	100	8	10.6
Vietnam Dong	1	16666	16150
Ajmal Hussain
Updated at :	5/18/16 11:55 PM

Awaiting FOMC Minutes

Apart from  Japan’s GDP report, there is nothing major in the calendar for today till 2am tomorrow (GMT +8) when the FOMC minutes are being released.

Everyone is hoping it would shed some light to the next possible rate hike. Would it be in June or July?

As of just now, the probability of rate hike has increased to 15% whereas same time last week, it was only at 3.8%.

Would the minutes be the catalyst to break through the consolidation? Any such hint might provide the much awaited rally for USD.

Let’s see what others have to say:

Kathy Lian: “Tomorrow’s FOMC minutes will also affect USD/JPY. Better than expected U.S. data helped the dollar hold onto its recent gains but they failed to take the greenback to fresh highs. The sharp increase in housing starts, stronger rise in consumer prices and jump in industrial production tell a similar story as Friday’s retail sales report –one of continued recovery in the U.S. economy. The last time the Fed met was in late April and even though U.S. policymakers expressed less concern about global troubles, the dollar peaked as investors realize that there was nothing in the statement to suggest they would raise interest rates in June. The overall tone of the FOMC statement was subdued with the Fed noting that inflation remains low and inflation expectations were little changed. While they liked how the labor market had been performing, they no longer saw economic activity expanding at a moderate pace. The balance of risks statement was also missing from the report. Tomorrow’s FOMC minutes is expected to confirm the division in views within the central bank and validate the market’s expectations for steady rates next month.”

From Bloomberg: ” “The April FOMC statement was an attempt by the committee to balance out the odds of a June move a little bit,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC in New York. “They weren’t ready to say they wanted to go in June, but they felt like the odds priced in June were too low.”

Michael Gapen, Barclays chief U.S. economist, previews the release of the minutes from the April meeting of the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.